20 Sep 2012
Phopshorus Supply and Demand in Australia
Rob Norton
International Plant Nutrition Institute, 54 Florence St, Horsham, Victoria. (http://anz.ipni.net)
Paper presented at the "Phosphorus in Agriculture" workshop, Adelaide, September 20, 2012.
A reliable supply of high quality phosphorus (P) has been a cornerstone of agricultural development in Australia as well as across the globe. As nearly every farmer knows, P is an essential nutrient for plant growth that has no substitutes. So, where P is lacking in the soil, adding fertilizer P can achieve large responses and ongoing agricultural production depends on at least replacing the P removed in produce. For example, a 3 t/ha wheat crop will remove around 10 kg of P which is the equivalent of 50 kg of mono-ammonium phosphate (MAP). Some cropping soils have reasonable soil P levels, but others are quite responsive to added fertiliser P. This we have known for many years, certainly since the first synthetic P sources were tested by Lawes and Gilbert when they established the Rothamsted long term rotation at Broadbalk near Harpenden in 1843.
In Australia, the first SSP experiments were undertaken following the experiences from Rothamsted. The introduction of single superphosphate (SSP) into Australian farming is attributed to the first principal of Roseworthy Agricultural College, Professor JD Custance. His experiments over the 1880’s and subsequently by Professor Lowrie established the use of SSP (termed “english” superphosphate) as an effective and profitable “manure” for wheat crops (D Reuter, pers. comm.). At the same time as John Bennett Lawes took out an English patent, Scot, Dr John Shear produced experimental lots of new fertilizer which were tested in the field by Mari Cuming. The latter’s son, James Cuming, migrated to Australia and was destined to become the founder of the SSP industry in Australia. In 1872, Charles Campbell and James Cuming bought the business at Yarraville of Robert and Alexander Smith who were manufacturing sulphuric acid in a small way. The purchasers formed a company under the name Cuming Smith and as early as 1880 the company was making SSP, which was exported to Mauritius in exchange for sugar (C Walker Incitec Pivot, Pers. Comm.).
Professor Colin Donald (1965) reported earlier work from 45 field trials in South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria, where 60 lb/ac (67 kg/ha, 6 kg P/ha) of single superphosphate (SSP) increased yields from 8.1 bu/ac (0.54 t/ha) to 13.4 bu/ac (0.90 t/ha). Indeed, in his most famous yield trend graph, Donald identified the adoption of SSP as a key driver of the increase in Australian wheat yields in the first two decades after federation. By 1970 333 kt of P was applied to over 15 Mha of pastures (average of 13 kg P/ha, Wheeler and Hutchinson, 1973) and 12 Mha of crops (average 11 kg P/ha, IFA 2012).
Agriculture currently uses around 384 kt and average P use in Australia in the period 2002-2011 is 411Kt (FIFA pers com 2012). This is used on around 30 Mha of field, fodder and horticultural crops as well as around 10 Mha of improved pastures (ABS 2012). Farmers now spend around $2.2 billion each year on fertilisers (ABARES 2011) and this annual expenditure has been inflating at around 2.1% per year since 1995. Total farm costs have increased by 3.7% annually over the same period.
Phosphate rock (PR) production
Table 1 gives a summary of the production of PR, (at 30.9% P2O5 equivalence), for the year 2010, with the largest producers being east Asia and Africa. Global production was around 182 Mt of PR (56 Mt of P2O5 equivalent to 24.5 Mt of P) and around 17% of this is traded internationally. Very little rock is exported from east Asia, while Africa and west Asia produce 80% of the traded rock. Demand for rock has grown at around 2% annually, with the largest growth in regions with the highest populations. Use of rock has trended downwards in both western Europe and north America. There was a large (15%) increase in PR production in 2010 compared to 2009, and this rise occurred in all exporting countries.
Table 1, Global Production and trade of phosphate rock, 2010 (‘000 t rock), and the trend in use for the previous 6 years (IFA Stats 2012).
| Region | Production | Exports | Use | 6 Year use trend |
| West Europe | 817 | 62 | 5 616 | -5.0% |
| Central Europe |  | | 2 033 | -1.6% |
| E. Europe & C. Asia | 13 299 | 2 418 | 13 512 | 3.1% |
| North America | 26 152 | | 29 037 | -3.6% |
| Latin America | 8 202 | 618 | 10 641 | 2.0% |
| Africa | 43 241 | 16 079 | 27 295 | 2.0% |
| West Asia (M. East) | 13 642 | 8 309 | 7 126 | -0.7% |
| South Asia | 2 068 | | 8 867 | 5.2% |
| East Asia | 71 569 | 1 482 | 74 423 | 6.8% |
| Oceania | 3 121 | 1 016 | 3 357 | 7.6% |
| Total | 182 111 | 29 984 | 182 111 | 2.0% |
Australia has developed reserves of around 240 Mt of PR (USGS, 2012), which represents around 150 years supply based on current domestic use. McCarron (2010) identified 17 P projects planned, many looking to exploit the Georgina basin PR reserves, and these include the production of unbeneficated rock, beneficiated rock and phosphoric acid, as well as an AP plant. Two of the larger projects are the Paradise Phosphate project (Legend International Holdings Inc.) and the Wonarah Rock Phosphate project (Minemakers Ltd.).
More details can be found at http://www.australian-phosphate.com.
There is also significant activity in developing these resources internationally. For example the Ma’aden project is a new 5 Mt per year PR mine began operation in Saudi Arabia late in 2010 and an associated fertilizer plant is due to progressively bring product on-line over the next few years. World mine production capacity was projected to increase to 228 million tonnes by 2015 through mine expansion projects in Algeria, Brazil, China, Israel, Jordan, Syria, and Tunisia, and development of new mines in Australia, Kazakhstan, Namibia, and Russia (USGS, 2011).
IFA estimates that PR capacity will increase by 26% between 2010 and 2015 to 256 Mt of PR, with half the growth coming from Africa. The expansions will mean there is likely to be an additional 15-20 Mt of new PR exportable, a 50% increase on the 2010 trade levels. Australia produces around 2 Mt of PR annually, most of under 29.8% P2O5, or which around 0.5 Mt is exported, about 0.2 Mt of which goes to both Morocco and Vietnam. This compares to around 10 Mt exported by Morocco. Australia imports PR from Morocco (288 kt), Christmas Island (74 kt) and Nauru (11 kt).
P fertilizer manufacture
P fertilisers such as MAP, DAP, triple super and superphosphate are all ultimately made from phosphate rock (PR) that is mined mainly from ancient marine sediments as well as relatively new guano deposits and some igneous deposits. After mining, phosphate rock is beneficiated using washing, screening, floatation, cycloning, calcining or some other processes to give a product with 27-37% P2O5 (12-16% P). To produce P fertilizers, the rock is reacted with acids, which is the process that Lawes and Gilbert patented in the mid-1800s. SSP is produced by acidulation with sulfuric acid, which means a second feedstock (sulfur) is required. Acidulation through a phosphoric acid plant, with the subsequent removal of gypsum, is the basis of triple superphosphate (TSP) and the ammoniated phosphates (AP).
Over the past 30 years, there has been a significant reduction in the number of SSP production facilities, with plants now in Geelong, Portand, Kwinana and Hobart, as well as 6 small plants in New Zealand. There is only one AP plant in Australia which is at Phosphate Hill in Queensland, although there are several ammonia plants (Brisbane, Newcastle, Moranbah, Kwinana) that service both the mining and agricultural industries. These produce ammonia for conversion to ammonium nitrate or urea.
Globally, there are several very large projects developing P downstream processing particularly in the middle east, such as the Ma’aden Project in Saudi Arabia which forecasts annual production of 3 Mt of DAP. Prud’homme (2011) estimated that the developments mooted have the potential to add 54 Mt of productive capacity between 2010 and 2015, and 30-35 Mt of this will be available for export. This includes expansion of current producers as well as new operators.
P consumption
Food and fibre production consumes around 12.3 Mt of processed phosphates (as P, equivalent to 28.4 Mt P2O5) annually and this is increasing at around 2.4% per annum over the past decade. Growth is strongest in the south and east Asia, and those regions also consume 57% of the annual P as processed phosphate (Table 2). DAP is the dominant P form used globally, while MAP and TSP are 35% and 10% of global consumption respectively. TSP is mainly used in the middle east, central Europe and latin America, while DAP is the dominant P source in south Asia (98% of P used), Oceania (Australia 703Kt MAP 550t DAP average 2002-2011) (73%) and western Europe (67%). Collectively south Asia and east Asia consume around 57% of the total P use, which is also where over 40% of the worlds population lives.
Table 2. 2010 production, trade and consumption of TSP, MAP and DAP (kt P), and annual growth in consumption (mean of 2001-2010). IFA stats 2012.
| P fertilizer production and trade (kt P) | %Growth | %DAP | |||
Prodn | Export | Import | Consumed | |||
| West Europe | 77 | 35 | 461 | 503 | -1.9% | 67% |
| Central Europe | 130 | 63 | 67 | 134 | -2.1% | 35% |
| E. Europe & C. Asia | 1205 | 930 | 60 | 335 | 2.9% | 51% |
| North America | 2598 | 1238 | 250 | 1611 | -0.2% | 58% |
| Latin America | 649 | 171 | 1194 | 1672 | 1.2% | 19% |
| Africa | 1281 | 1103 | 202 | 381 | 4.1% | 57% |
| West Asia (M. East) | 526 | 322 | 291 | 495 | 0.8% | 59% |
| South Asia | 852 | 0 | 1982 | 2835 | 4.3% | 98% |
| East Asia | 5147 | 1257 | 493 | 4384 | 4.6% | 50% |
| Oceania | 171 | 74 | 212 | 309 | -1.3% | 73% |
| Total | 12673 | 5255 | 5255 | 12672 | 2.4% | 55% |
Figure 1 shows the long term global and Australian use of P fertilizers, and as indicated in Table 2, there has been a global downturn in P use since the early 1990’s. In Australia, P use has declined since the peak in 2000, and fell by 40% over the milleneum drought, although use has recovered since then. It is salient to remember that in 1970 333 kt of P was applied to over 15 Mha of pastures (average of 13 kg P/ha, Wheeler and Hutchinson, 1973) and 12 Mha of crops (average 11 kg P/ha, IFA 2012). Current use of 384 kt P is on around 30 Mha of field, fodder and horticultural crops as well as around 10 Mha of improved pastures (ABS 2012), which is 80% of the rate applied 40 years ago.
Figure 1. Consumption of P (kt of P) since 1960 for Australia and the world.
DAP and MAP represents around 70% of the P used in Australia (Table 3), and there has been a large swing away from SSP to APs because of the higher P content of the latter giving cheaper freight and handling costs per unit of P applied. There has also be an 18% decline in P use over the past decade, despite a modest increase in grain production over the same period (Table 3). Lower livestock numbers have seen single super sales drop from 1,300 kt to 636 kt in the period 2002-2011.
Table 3. P use (kt P) by source and state, and change in use 2011 compared to the decade average (ABARES 2010, FIFA 2012) and grain production for the same periods.
| State | 2002 | 2006 | 2011 | % change in P use. | |||
| SSP | Other | SSP | Other | SSP | Other | |
| NSW | 30.2 | 98.3 | 22.0 | 81.9 | 12.7 | 72.1 | -15 |
| Vic | 42.1 | 66.8 | 33.1 | 70.2 | 16.5 | 82.6 | +2 |
| Qld | 0.9 | 19.3 | 1.2 | 21.8 | 0.6 | 22.3 | +5 |
| WA | 24.9 | 100.7 | 23.8 | 97.2 | 14.9 | 75.5 | -21 |
| SA | 10.5 | 56.0 | 7.6 | 57.9 | 6.7 | 67.0 | +16 |
| Tas | 8.0 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 7.1 | -9 |
| Australia | 116.8 | 353.6 | 95.9 | 337.0 | 57.2 | 326.9 | -7 |
| Total P Use (kt P) | 470 | 433 | 384 | -18 | |||
| Crop Prodn Mt* | 42.0 | 43.3 | 43.5 | - | |||
Table 4 shows the major P fertilizer products used over the past decade, clearly showing the trend to imported AP’s, as well as the trend towards traded products, particularly for the APs. Australia exports as well as imports all of these P sources (except TSP) at various times depending on domestic and international trading terms. There are new entries into the Australian fertilizer trade over the past few years, sourcing product domestically and internationally.
Table 4. Major P fertilizers used in Australia, 2002 – 2011, kt of product (FIFA 2012, ABARES 2012).
| P Source | 2002 | 2006 | 2011 | ||||||
| Imported | Domestic | Imported | Domestic | Imported | Domestic | |||
| Rock P | 711 | 2,083 | 472 | 2,131 | 408* | 1936* | |||
| MAP | 444 | 115 | 656 | 256 | 557 | 159 | |||
| DAP | 250 | 480 | 236 | 343 | 200 | 210 | |||
| TSP** | 194 | - | 107 | - | 47 | - | |||
| SSP | 67 | 1,231 | 39 | 1,027 | 80 | 556 | |||
| Exports of AP’s | 284 | 156 | 388 | ||||||
Use of P fertilizer
IFA released a global analysis of the which crops received which fertilizer (Heffer, 2009). Table 5 shows the global and Australian breakdown of P use by crop for the 2006-2007. Around two thirds of the P fertilizer used in Australia is applied to the annual crops of cereals, oilseeds and cotton. The large amount of P in Table 5 attributed to “other crops” is mainly P applied to pastures.
Table 5. Fertilizer use by crop at global and regional levels (Heffer, 2009).
| Global | Australia | ||
| Crop Category | 2006/7 Mt P | Share% | 2006/7 kt P | Share% |
| Wheat | 2.77 | 16.4 | 125 | 30.7 |
| Rice | 2.11 | 4.8 | - | - |
| Maize | 2.15 | 4.9 | - | - |
All Cereal | 7.83 | 46.6 | 235 | 55.5 |
| Soybean | 1.14 | 6.8 | - | - |
| Oil Palm | 0.13 | 0.8 | - | - |
All Oilseed | 2.07 | 12.3 | 33 | 7.7 |
| Cotton | 0.70 | 4.1 | 1 | 0.3 |
| Sugar Crops | 0.66 | 3.9 | 14 | 3.1 |
| Fruit & Veg. | 2.99 | 17.8 | 21 | 4.9 |
| Other Crops | 2.55 | 15.3 | 89 | 30.7 |
| Total | 16.81 | 100.0 | 432 | 100.0 |
As part of the IPNI regional activities, we have been constructing regional values for P balance using fertilizer use figures and product removal values. (see Edis and Norton, this conference) For Australia over the period 2002/03 to 2008/09, the average P input was 427 kt P (and falling), and around 149 kt of P was removed in agricultural produce. Obviously some part of this is recycled through livestock and the application of manure, but on balance, Australia had a partial nutrient balance of 0.35, meaning that about one third of the P applied was removed in produce. The remainder could contribute to background soil fertility or be subject to transport and loss especially including soil erosion.
Dobermann (2007) estimated that the PNB for wheat and rice systems in India and China was between 0.24 and 0.27, based on field trial data. Fixen et al. (pers. comm.) calculated global and regional P balances for the period 1980 to 2005. Globally, PNB-P is around 0.65 and trending upwards, while North America and Europe are close to P balance. The values for China and India are similar to Australia, but trending downwards, placing these systems at risk of P lossess to the environment. Africa has PNB-P approaching 2, indicating that significant soil fertility mining is occurring. To fully understand the meaning of these balance figures, they needs to be indexed against regional soil test values so that the fate of the applied P can be estimated.
Rock P resource assessments
Van Vuuren et al. (2010) estimated that about half the current P resource would be depleted by 2100. An earlier estimate by Cordell et al. (2009) suggested that P fertiliser supply would peak in 2033 after which production would steadily fall. Because there is no agronomic substitute for P and much of the worlds food supply hinges on its use, having a reliable estimate of reserves is important in assessing how immediate is the problem of P resource depletion.
The size of the reserve of phosphate rock is an estimate of materials that can be economically produced at the present time using existing technology. The actual reserve base is the portion of the total reserve base (or resource) from which future reserves could be developed. Both terms are important as the reserve will change with technology and prices. As well, new deposits are discovered which adds to the resource base and reserve. These values of phosphate rock are expressed in terms of P2O5 content with most rock being around 25% to 35% P2O5.
The most recent comprehensive assessment of phosphate rock reserve and reserve base was undertaken by the International Fertilizer Development Centre (IFDC) (Van Kauwenbergh, 2010). The IFDC estimate of global phosphate rock reserves is approximately 60 billion tonnes of concentrate which the US Geological Survey increased to 65 billion tonnes recently (USGS 2011) and then again to 71 billion tonnes in 2012 (USGS 2012). Table 6 lists the annual PR production for 2010 and an estimate of 2011 production for the major producers and the size of the current PR rock reserves (USGS 2011, 2012). The IFDC estimate of global resources is approximately 290 billion tonnes.
Table 6. World Mine Production and Reserves (USGS 2011, 2012).
PR production (kt) | Reserves (Mt) | Resource (Mt) | |||
2010 | 2011 | USGS 2012 | USGS 2011 | IFDC 2010 | |
| Algeria | 1,800 | 1,800 | 2,200 | 2,200 | - |
| Australia | 2,600 | 2,700 | 250 | 82 | 3,500 |
| Brazil | 5,700 | 6,200 | 310 | 340 | 2,800 |
| Canada | 700 | 1,000 | 2 | 5 | 130 |
| China | 68,000 | 72,000 | 3,700 | 3,700 | 16,800 |
| Egypt | 6,000 | 6,000 | 100 | 100 | 3,400 |
| Israel | 3,140 | 3,200 | 180 | 180 | 1,600 |
| Jordan | 6,000 | 6,200 | 1,500 | 1,500 | 1,800 |
| Morocco | 25,800 | 27,000 | 50,000 | 50,000 | 170,000 |
| Russia | 11,000 | 11,000 | 1,300 | 1,300 | 4,300 |
| Senegal | 950 | 950 | 180 | 180 | 250 |
| South Africa | 2,500 | 2,500 | 1,500 | 1,500 | 7,700 |
| Syria | 3,000 | 3,100 | 1,800 | 1,800 | 2,200 |
| Togo | 850 | 800 | 60 | 60 | 1,000 |
| Tunisia | 7,600 | 5,000 | 100 | 100 | 1,200 |
| United States | 25,800 | 28,400 | 1,400 | 1,400 | 49,000 |
| Other | 9,600 | 13,299 | 6,418 | 550 | 22,000 |
| World | 181,000 | 191,000 | 71,000 | 65,000 | 290,000 |
Over the past few years, production has been around 200 Mt of PR, and demand has risen by 2.1% per year from 2007/2008 until 2011/2012 and is predicted to rise by around 3% annually until at least 2015 (Heffer and Prud’homme, 2011). Beyond that, demand would seem most likely to follow population growth, and van Vuuren et al. (2010) estimated that in a worst case scenario, about 40-60% of the current reserve base would be extracted by 2100, but as reserves and resources are added this timeline pushes out considerably further. The estimates for P2O5 demand by 2050 suggest that use will increase 38%, with conspumption in Africa and Eastern Europe almost three times the 2006 use, but only modest growth in east Asia and west Asia. It is also significant that demand in developed agricultural systems has declined, possibly a consequence of the build up of P in agricultural soils in arable lands. That may result in a reduction in the use of P fertilizers for crop production.
Importance of managing P
Even though the supply of P for food production is not likely to run out in the short or even medium, term growers and the fertilizer industry should not be complacent. Phosphorus is a non-renewable resource and using fertilizer best management practices to ensure efficient use of P is a critical component of wise nutrient stewardship. P has a profound effect on food and fibre production, but much can be done to improve efficiency as well as ensure access particularly for resource poor producers. This will also include investigating strategies to recycle P as well as ensuring as much soil P is retained on farm by reducing soil erosion.
To develop this strategy, the Global TraPs project (Transdisciplinary Processes for Sustainable Phosphorus Management) (http://www.globaltraps.ch/) was initiated in 2010, to bring together researchers from various disciplines, producers and users of P. It is essentially charged to investigate “What new knowledge, technologies and policy options are needed to ensure that future phosphorus use is sustainable, improves food security and environmental quality and provides benefits for the poor?”
The two major issues to receive attention within a staged process between 2010 and 2015 are:
1. the finite nature of phosphate resources vis-à-vis their essentiality in all biological systems and food and fiber production and
2. the increasing water contamination caused by excessive P use and/or poor management practices. Off-site P losses cause negative environmental impacts by triggering surface water runoff and soil erosion.
Summary:
On behalf of the international fertilizer industry, IFA has expressed the following key messages:
1. The fertilizer industry does not support the theory of rapid depletion of PR reserves.
2. The fertilizer industry endorses the IFDC report, which concluded that resources will remain available for several centuries.
3. The IFDC report is a good basis on which to continue research to assess geological reserves based on existing and publicly available information.
4. The IFDC report is consistent with the fertilizer industry’s commitment to use P resources sustainably and encourage research on better recycling and re-use.
5. It is important to consider both demand for P as well as supply, particularly considering the decline in P use in developed production systems.
At a local level, the Fertcare product stewardship programs can be a vehicle for delivery of local action on improving P use efficiency and reducing environmental risk. Achieving the right source at the right rate, applied at the right time and in the right place (4R’s) will be the cornerstone of future stewardship strategies.
References:
ABARES (2012). Australian Commodity Statistics 2010. http://www.daff.gov.au/abares
Cordell D, J Drangert, S White (2009). The story of phosphorus: Global food security and food for thought. Global Environment Change 19, 292 – 305.
Dobermann, A (2007). Nutrient use efficiency – measurement and management. In “IFA International Workshop on Fertilizer Best Management Practices”, Brussels, Belgium, p1-28.
Donald, CM (1967). Innovation in Agriculture, In “Agricutlture in the Australian Economy” Sydney University Press, Sydney Australia, p57-86.
FIFA (2012). 2012 Fertilizer sales statistics, The Fertilizer, Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia (see http://www.fifa.asn.au/).
Fixen, P (2009). World fertilizer nutrient reserves – a view to the future. Better Crops, 93, 8-11.
Heffer P (2009). Assessment of fertilizer use by crop at the global level 2006/07 -2007/08. IFA http://www.fertilizer.org/ifa/HomePage/STATISTICS/FUBC
Heffer P, M Prud’homme (2011). Fertilizer Outlook 2011 to 2015, 79th IFA Annual Conference, Montreal, May 2011 (see http://www.fertilizer.org/ifa/HomePage/LIBRARY/Conference-papers/Annual-Conferences/2011-IFA-Annual-Conference).
IFA Stats (2012). Statistics, International Fertilizer Industry Association, http://www.fertilizer.org/ifa/HomePage/STATISTICS.
McCarron, E. (2010). A summary of fertilizer resource projects in Australia. http://www.fifa.asn.au/default.asp?V_DOC_ID=1183.
Van Kauwenbergh, SJ (2010). World Phosphate Rock Reserves and Resources. International Fertilizer Development Centre, Muscle Shoals, Alabama.
Van Vuuren DP, AF Bouwman, AHW Beusen (2010). Phosphorus demand for the 1970–2100 period: A scenario analysis of resource depletion. Global Environmental Change 20, 428–439.
USGS (2012). Phosphate Rock. U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral commodity summaries January 2011 (p 118-119) On line at http://minerals.er.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs
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